DARRELL'S THEORY:

In regard to Mike's theory for PSII's date, I must disagree with it (though as usual it's extremely entertaining to read). Here's how I see it.

In PSIV, Rika definitively states that Parma (Palm) was destroyed in AW 1284. This event took place during PSII, and while it's quite possible that PSII began in, say 1283 and ended in 1286 or later, it's impossible, given that chronology, for PSII to have begun earlier than 1284. Thus, to place PSII in 1286, we must state that Rika was either (a) mistaken, (b) misinformed, or (c) deliberately misleading the party.

• I think we can all rule out (c) without further argument. Rune mislead the party? Sure, without blinking an eye. Alys, maybe. Wren, possibly. Raja, well, if it was funny. Rika? You've gotta be kidding!
• As for (b), we must therefore presume that either Wren or Seed or both were either deliberately lying when they taught Rika or that they were in turn in possession of inaccurate data. The former is possible, but PSIV gives us no evidence that such might be occurring, so anything in this direction would be pure, probably wild, speculation. The latter is unlikely, given that Wren was created in 1286 and Seed quite possibly dated from prior to PSII. It is possible that Wren was provided insufficient information if created post-Palma, and drew inaccurate conclusions, and Seed's data may have been corrupted while its systems were controlled by Neifirst. However, this theory, while more plausible than that of deliberate deception, lacks support.
• That leaves us with (a), and while, yes, Rika can be a bit of a ditz sometimes, she isn't specifically presented as absentminded or unintelligent (quite the contrary, immediately prior to the history episode we're debating here, she cracks the security code on the wrecked ship's computer).

Therefore, without specific reason to doubt her reliability, I'm forced to fall back on the basic rule of speculation about timelines: that any information presented in the games must be considered as accurate unless strong evidence (I'd have to say, from a legal standpoint, that at least "clear and convincing evidence" must be presented) can be raised to the contrary. I do not believe Mike's theory presents such evidence, as I will debate below.

Fact One: Mike's argument here is not necessarily wrong, and in fact I find nothing wrong with it. However, without a more cogent explanation of the way the seal operates, it is just as acceptable to suggest (as I do) that the precise dating (every 1000 years, not about every 1000 years) suggests that on the millenium specific forces or stresses gather that weaken the seal. Until that millenium, these forces might not accumulate, and thus the damaged seal of AW 2284 might only begin to collapse at the moment the millenium arrives...sort of like how you wouldn't suffer any ill effects from your car's air bag being inoperative until you drive it into a tree. In short, while Mike's argument is not invalid on its face, it doesn't seem any more likely than the alternative.

Fact Two: I disagree strongly with Mike's assumptions here. First of all, Rika indicates that some of the Parmanian (Palman) worldships arrived safely on Dezolis and Motavia. They would, presumably, contain members of Palman society who would possess technological skills--at the least, the pilots and engineers (as these skills were preserved in Aerone and Techna on the Alisa III over 1000 years, it seems likely that they could be managed over one or two). These individuals, combined with the raw materials available on Mota, should presumably be able to construct places such as Vahal Fort, Kuran, Zelan, and the new Wren android. Rika, with direct access to Seed and Wren, as well as whatever historical records may have endured in Algo, as well as the wrecked ship's memory banks, seems a more reliable witness than the denziens of New Mota, who may well be the keepers of an oral history and who do not necessarily have access to any kind of technological record-storage equipment.

In regard to 'rens and Wrens, I might point out that PSIV Wren is unique, and obviously significantly different than PSIII Wren. In , we are given indications that Wren is not unique ("Did you know that Wren cyborgs can transform?" "That chest contains sub parts for YOUR (emphasis added) Wren," etc.). It is quite possible, then, that Wren in PSIV is one-of-a-kind, designed to fufill the specific duty of managing the Zelan-based environmental control system. Since the Zelan system was not begun until it was determined that the Daughter Project had failed, IF Wren was specifically created to assume the Zelan control post, then it seems nearly conclusive that PSII took place in 1284.

Moreover, I might note that "The Great Collapse" does not refer to either the destruction of Palm or that of Mother Brain, but to the social, climatological (um, is that a word? ^_^), and technological upheaveal that occurred when a piece of Palm struck Mota (probably, I'd speculate, right on top of Paseo, but that's another theory). That is, there's a time lag there:

1. Palm is destroyed
2. Mother Brain is destroyed by Rolf & Co.
3. Systems dependent on Mother Brain, such as Climatrol, shut down
4. Desperate attempts to restore climate control to Mota are begun
5. The Daughter Project is abandoned and the Zelan project begun
6. A piece of Palm strikes Mota, triggering catastrophic disasters worldwide. Society fragments and technology is lost as survival becomes paramount. The planet returns to its arid state, less capable of supporting life. More than likely, the chaos is accompanied by widespread panic, outbreaks of racism ("It's all the Motavians' fault!"), distrust in government (especially since Mother Brain had already been shut down), outbreaks of disease, numerous atrocities, and the usual annoyances that accompany apocalyptic destruction.

Since we don't know how long it took for the fragment of Palm to reach Mota, it may have been long enough to account for PSII taking place in 1284 and Wren being constructed in 1286.

Fact Three: I consider this Mike's most powerful argument; in fact, it nearly convinced me. Here is hard data from an actual English Phantasy Star game which appears to indicate that the present is at least 1285 or later. I have, however, two possible counter-arguments to present against it:

• Error. As you may recall, on board Gaila's conputer, we are presented with a computer screen indicating the names of the three planets as "Parma", "Motabia", and "Dezolis". However, the text throughout the rest of the game indicates that at that time the planets were called "Palm", "Mota", and "Dezo" (btw, did that screenshot also get the planets in their correct PSII orbits?). While it could be argued that "Parma" and "Dezolis" (which were carried forward in PSIV) were the full and correct names of the planets and that Palm and Dezo were merely nicknames or government designations, what about "Motabia"? Clearly, those systems which were linked to Mother Brain present suspicious data at the very least.
• Forecasting. As Neilast has already suggested, it is possible that the recorder notes the alarming changes taking place in mid-1283 and 1284 ("the last two years") and that the data that extends beyond is a projection presented by the librarian to illustrate just why it's so important that Rolf gets to Climatrol and fix the problems there. This is the theory I favor, by the way.

In all, while I find that Mike presents an interesting case, I find it at its roots too speculative and insufficiently convincing to make me believe that Rika was somehow mistaken.